Archive for the ‘Eschaton’ Category

Preparing for 3rd World Status — Pt 1

Sunday, March 29th, 2009

As the economy continues to falter, we should be preparing ourselves with ways to deal with the consequences.  In other countries, economic crashes resulted in the sporadic loss of utilities, such as electric.  Most of us cannot think of living without electricity 24/7 on demand.  We expect that when we turn on the switch, the lights will come on.

Well, as someone who has endured many days without electric service during ice storms, I can say that it makes life interesting.  Many of us can heat with fireplaces, and we can use candles and lanterns for lights, and if we live in a place that has public water, we might have water or we might not.  But most of us country dwellers have no water without electricity.  We rely on electric pumps to extract water from our wells.  Living is extremely difficult without water, and so it is a priority.

In my part of the country, the water table is too far down and the well casing to small in diameter to drop a bucket down the hole and bring it up either.  In my case, my well is 250 feet deep.  So I purchased a deep well hand pump, which can pump water from several hundred feet below the ground.  Unlike the old time pumps which pull water up by creating a suction at the top of the well, a deep well hand pump pushes it up from the bottom. Suction pumps can lift water a maximum of about 30 feet on a good day.  This limit does not exist when the water is pushed up from the bottom.

The unit I purchased is called the Simple Pump, and is basically produced by two guys (machinists) in a small shop.  They have sold hundreds of these pumps all over the world, and seem to have their engineering perfected.  The system consists of stainless steel pump unit slightly less than 2 inches in diameter, which is suspended in the well by pvc drop pipe connected to a stainless steel unit at the top of the well with the hand lever for pumping water.  A fiberglass rod extends down the drop pipe to provide the mechanical action necessary for pumping water.

The pump is small enough that it will fit beside an electric submersible pump in the well.

Here is the really cool part though.  The pump has garden hose threads at the output of the pump, and the pump has a oneway valve.  The hose can then be connected to an outside water faucet, and the hand pump used to pressurize the well tank inside the house.  Then the water pumped up by hand can be taken directly from the faucets inside the house.  No need to carry  buckets of water.

I will be installing this pump in a few days with the help of my plumber.  When it is finished, I will post a picture, and describe the installation.

Got Water?

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Posted in Economy, Energy, Eschaton, Product Review | No Comments »

2012 and the Mayans

Friday, January 9th, 2009

This week seems to be armageddon week on The History Channel, and a common theme is the end of the Mayan calendar at December 21, 2012, 11:11am GMT.

The Mayans used several different calendars for different purposes, but the one being talked about is called the Long Count Calendar which basically divides a 5125 year period into several smaller units. The 5125 year cycle is about 1/5th of the time it takes for the earth to precess one time on its axis; that is, the time to transit all 13 of the Zodiac signs. (Yes, there are 13)1.

Each 5125 years represented an Age of mankind and was built up of smaller units.

A Uinal was a period of 20 days.
18 Uinals made up a Tun or period of 360 days.
20 Tuns were known as a Katun, and was approximately 20 years.
20 Katuns were known as a Baktun, or a period of approximately 394 years.
And finally, 13 Baktuns constituted a Mayan Age of 5125 years.

Now, in our calendar, the year ends on December 31, but that doesn’t mean the world ends just because our calendar does. We simply start over on January 1. Likewise, the end of the Mayan calendar does not mean the sun will not rise on December 22, 2012. The calendar will start over. (There are a lot of myths concerning the end of the age however).

One of the problems with the Mayan calendar was that of correlating it to our modern calendar. That was solved when there was a celestial event consisting of a total eclipse of the sun which was recorded by the Mayans and corresponds to our calendar date of July 6, 790AD. This fixes the relationship between the two calendars such that this current Mayan Age began on August 13, 3114BC.

If the Mayans were correct in equating 5125 years as an identifiable ‘Age’, then history should reflect this as true.

Jose Arguelles wrote:

“August 13, 3113 BC is as precise and accurate as one can get for a beginning of history: the first Egyptian dynasty is dated to ca 3100 BC; the first ‘city,’ Uruk, in Mesopotamia, also ca 3100 BC; the Hindu Kali Yuga, 3102 BC; and most interestingly, the division of time into 24 hours of 60 minutes each and each minute into 60 seconds [and the division of the circle into 360 degrees], also around 3100 BC, in Sumeria. If the beginning of history was so accurately placed, then must not the end of history, December 21, 2012 also be as accurate?”

Notice the discrepancy of one year from 3114 to 3113? This has been a common error stemming from the fact that there was no year zero. 3114 BC is actually the year -3113, but no matter, his observation is accurate.

If the Mayans are right, we should see some evidence that historical periods are reflected in the structure of Mayan timekeeping. Tortuga.com has a good graphic to illustrate the relationship of historical periods to the Mayan calendar.

While I do not know for sure what will happen on Dec 21, 2012; I do know from simple observations that the world is changing fast. Some think we will have a monumental instantaneous lifting of our consciousness, while others think we will be destroyed. Perhaps both are true.

1) The Real Zodiac

Posted in Eschaton, Nature, Society and Government | 4 Comments »

Bible Codes – Are They Real?

Tuesday, December 9th, 2008

You probably have seen the TV specials on the History Channel about the Bible Codes, and the controversy over whether they are real or not. Well, I certainly cannot shed any definitive light on that question. Nevertheless, Bible Codes are intriguing, and something to ponder.

What are Bible Codes? Bible Codes are hidden messages found in the Torah by skipping equal amounts of letters. To find a given word, the skip distance is set to 1, and each letter of the text is examined to see if it matches the first letter of the search word. If it does, the second letter is examined until a match is made, or the text is exhausted. If no match is found, the skip distance is increased by one and the process is started anew. This technique was not practical until the invention of the modern computer.

This in itself is not very convincing, as the same thing can be done with any book. However, when a relevant search word is discovered, it often is surrounded by related relevant words at levels far above chance. If there is truth to the Bible Code theory, the present problem would be determining a true prophecy from false ones which can be found by a similar search of any large literary work. So far, no one seems to have found a solution as I will show by example.

Some of the codes which seem quite accurate and indeed prophetic are:

Hurricane Katrina: “I will break – this city as one breaks a potters vessel, that cannot be made whole again – And I will make this city an astonishment”.

The London train bombings: “London will descend – They will die -7th of July – Train – Disaster”.

Others are completely off though. For example, the codes declare that Aug 3, 2006 will begin a world war:

“Violent 08/03/06 Since the blood will profanate the earth – They which are poison and a chief/place of the father God – Prostate Rome”

and

“Aug 8, 2006 – A fire like a terror – In that day there shall be a great shaking in the Land of Israel”.

I’m pretty sure that those events did not happen.

Other prophetic future events include a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption in 2009, and a likely hit from the current state of the economy:

  • “We will be depressed; in 2009 is the peak”.

    • More economic prophecies from the codes which seem to fit current reality are:

    “Suitable, you will crush with a financial crisis in the year 2008″

    “The treasuries are desolate”

    “The Plan is an injustice against them. Paulson panicked them”

    “Paulson is suitable. And the seven years of famine began”

    There are lots more, and you can find them at exodus2006.com if you are interested.

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    The Limit of Growth

    Monday, February 4th, 2008

    It seems it is ever our goal to grow. We want our business to grow. We want our income to grow. We want our authority and our power to grow. It seems we believe we must either grow or die. But what if the very growth we seek will inevitably cause our death?

    Economists are ever after the 3% or 4% yearly growth in the economy. What does that mean exactly? Well, it means that we would have a 3 to 4% increase in the amount of goods and services the economy produces. This is good right? Well, not necessarily.

    Lets look at the longer term. A given growth rate produces a doubling of something in a given number of years. Just as a 6% interest or growth rate produces a doubling of your savings account in about 11 years, a 4% growth rate of the economy means the total amount of goods and services will double in 17 years. The approximate formula is 70 divided by the growth rate equals the number of years to double something. Therefore the doubling time at 4% growth is 70/4 or 17.5, and at 3% it would take a little over 23 years to double the economy.

    For the rest of this discussion, I will just talk about the more modest 3% rate of growth, and a doubling time of 23 years.

    To grow the economy means that we have to use more resources. Its not possible to make twice as much of something without using twice as much materials to do so. Further, there is no point in producing twice as much of something unless we also consume twice as much of that something.

    Growth is ultimately about consumption.

    If we look at an economy for a 1 doubling period, lets say that it will consume 1 unit of resources, and create 1 unit of production for that 1 period. During the next doubling period, it will use twice as much of everything to produce twice as much. That is, it will consume 2 units of resources. Note that at the end of the second period, we have consumed a total of 3 units of resources.

    During the next doubling period, we again use and produce twice as much as the previous doubling period, which means that we consume 4 units and produce 4 units. Notice that during this period, we used more units than in the previous periods combined. Notice that every time the economy doubles, we have used more resources in that one period than in all the combined previous periods, assuming a relatively constant growth rate for each period.

    Therefore, to grow at the modest rate of only 3% for the next 23 years means that we would consume more resources in that time than we have in our entire history! Is this even possible? 100 years ago, the answer was yes, but today, the answer is most likely not. At this point, we have almost depleted our supplies of natural resources, including coal, oil, fresh water, and uranium.

    Resource production is already faltering. For example, Africa is already experiencing electricity shortages to the point where some of its mines have had to shut down or drastically reduce operations. Energy will no doubt be the limiting factor to growth, as I have alread discussed in my articles regarding peak oil. The signs of the coming crash between civilization and the limit of growth are already upon us, and its foolish to base our existence on growth. However, there is little evidence that we as a civilization are smart enough to change our paradigms in time to avert a major disaster.

    Of course, I am not saying anything new. It has been known for decades. Only the exact date of the crash is unknown. Will it be tomorrow, or will it be in 10 years? I cannot say for sure; I can only say that it is close.

    Posted in Economy, Energy, Eschaton | 2 Comments »

    Peak Oil, and the case for rationing

    Saturday, March 31st, 2007

    The term Peak Oil refers to the condition where the amount of oil that can be pumped out of the ground worldwide can no longer be increased to meet increasing consumer demand. It does not mean that there is no more oil left in the ground, but means that for technical and socio-political reasons, the amount pumped daily can no longer be increased. The major technical reasons can be summed up as a lack of large new oil discoveries in over 30 years; and the pressure in the producing oil fields has fallen as the oil has been extracted. Reduced pressure means decreased flow rates from the wells.

    Presently, the world consumes over 84 million barrels of oil each day with the US using 25% of that amount. Up until 2005, Saudi Arabia had been the swing producer for the world. That means that SA had excess capacity which allowed them to increase production when needed, or throttle it back when demand slumped. By doing that, SA was able to stabilize oil prices somewhat. SA apparently no longer has any spare capacity, which means that the world is now pumping oil as fast as possible. However, most of the major oil fields have a declining output. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico, Russia, Europe, and the US fields are now declining in production by up to 20% per year, while demand from the US, China, and India are still increasing. The result of this condition will be gasoline shortages in the very near future unless something is done to lower demand. Those of us who were driving during the oil embargo in the early 70′s remember what happened then, with long lines at the gas pumps, odd-even days to buy gas etc. It wasn’t a pretty sight for sure. But then, we knew it would not last forever. This time, it will.

    It seems obvious to me that we as a country should have an emergency plan, and policies in place to deal with the moment in time when demand is 1 gallon greater than available supply. Each of us relies on gasoline to get to work, buy our groceries, get to school, and basically live our lives. In short, the entire American way of life depends on oil; it is our life blood. Think about all the things you do that depend on your ability to travel. Think about all the goods and services you rely on for your very survival.

    We have passed the point where we can hope that some new technology will save us. The time span to implement anything is too long to prevent what is coming. Already, the price of gasoline and other liquid fuels has reached the point where it is hurting a lot of people. If nothing is done, the market forces will drive up the cost of fuel to ever higher prices to bring supply and demand into balance. Ethanol and other bio-fuels cannot make up for the decline in oil production. Hydrogen is not an energy source, and therefore cannot make up the missing oil. What we need in the short term is conservation, and we need it now. We need time to come up with workable solutions, and that means decades, not years.

    Here are some interesting facts about US oil consumption for the following discussion. Numbers are approximate.
    Daily usage of oil: 21 million barrels or 880 million gallons (varies somewhat with seasons)
    Daily gasoline usage about 9 million barrels or 380 million gallons
    Number of licensed drivers: 200 million
    Number of registered vehicles: 245 million (cars, light trucks, SUVs, and motorcycles)
    Avg mileage of passenger fleet: 17 mpg
    Avg distance driven per day per driver: 32 (based on 380m gals, 200m drivers, 17 mpg)
    Median passenger vehicle age: 9 years

    Since world oil supply is not likely to be increased, but rather decreased, we as a country desperately need to decrease our consumption of oil, especially gasoline. Decreasing demand by 1 million barrels of oil per day would immediately reduce the price of gasoline worldwide. There are two major ways to immediately decrease demand, neither one of which are pain free.

    The first way to decrease gasoline demand is to make it more expensive. This will happen naturally by market forces if no other action is taken. The results of allowing this to happen are not very appealing.

    1) The lowest income groups and those on fixed incomes will be hurt the most.
    2) Oil prices worldwide will increase, hurting the US politically.
    3) More of our wealth will be transferred to foreign countries (OPEC)
    4) We become more dependant on foreign oil producing countries.
    5) Demand will decrease only enough to bring supply/demand back into balance. IE: Oil production will still be at maximum.
    6) Periodic shortages at the pumps will produce civil unrest while market equilibrium is reached.

    Of course, another way to make gasoline more expensive is to increase the Federal tax on it. This is the method used in a lot of countries, and is the reason that gasoline is close to $6 a gallon in Britain even though they pay the same price for crude oil as the US. Of course, like most of the tax money we pay, there is no guarantee that the money will be used for our benefit, but the demand reduction would help and would mitigate numbers 3 and 4 above above. Taxation is of course preferred by government but is not necessarily the best answer.

    1) The lowest income groups will be still be hurt the most.
    2) Oil prices worldwide will not increase as much with less US demand.
    3) Less of our wealth will be transferred to OPEC.
    4) We become less dependant on foreign producers.
    5) Demand will decrease more (or less) according to the amount of extra taxation.
    6) Less chance of spot shortages at the pumps.
    7) More of our wealth will be transferred to the Federal Government. Whether this is a plus or a minus depends on how wisely the Feds spend the money.

    The second major way to decrease demand is to force it lower by rationing. This has been successfully done in the US before, during WWII. If rationing were to be implemented:

    1) World crude oil prices would decrease. A million barrel per day reduction cut in demand could have as much effect in lowering the price of oil as the supply destruction of hurricane Katrina had in raising it.
    2) There would be a beneficial impact on the lower income and fixed income groups.
    3) Less of our wealth would be transferred to OPEC.
    4) We would be less dependant on foreign oil.
    5) There would be less chance of shortages at the pumps.
    6) Demand can be exactly controlled.

    There are some other benefits to the rationing approach. Lets assume that the rationing is done on a per driver basis, and that the goal would be to decrease gasoline demand by 1 million barrels per day (about 11%). This target amount would be a ration of 50 gallons per month per driver. Lets also assume that the rationing is done by issuing coupons or some other method where the rations could be transferred easily. By doing this, people who do not consume their rationed amount could sell their coupons to the highest bidder. Not only would everyone enjoy a lower price for gasoline; those who conserve, and don’t use their entire allotment could gain from those who can’t or won’t.

    At the same time, people would demand more efficient vehicles, and automakers would need to respond, thereby driving them to do what government CAFE standards haven’t. When a person has to bid for coupons to be able to drive a 7 mpg Lincoln or Hummer, that person is likely to start questioning his own choice in vehicles. A 50 gallon ration per month is slightly more than 10,000 miles per year for an average mpg vehicle, but is 30,000 miles for a Toyota Prius. There would definitely be pressure to retire the lower mpg vehicles in the fleet in favor of higher mpg vehicles, which would tend to increase the overall efficiency allowing a further cut in the ration in a few years. Trading ration coupons would even be an incentive for people to use mass transportation and leave the auto at home where possible.
    A possible political benefit of rationing would be that other countries would see us in an entirely different light, where we would no longer be seen as the energy hogs we really have been. We might even be seen as leaders. Perhaps that would help heal our image problems with the rest of the world.

    There is also the ecological benefits that using less oil brings, which everyone should be concerned about. We would not need to build any new refineries, pipelines, oil tankers, etc. We would not have to destroy our food production with the folly of ethanol production or other bio-fuels, and we would not have to destroy our water supply turning coal into diesel fuel with the Fischer-Tropsch method, or at least these things could be postponed for quite a while. Most importantly, rationing would instill in the populace the realization that the earth has limits as to what it can provide to us.
    Digg!

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    Posted in Economy, Energy, Eschaton | No Comments »

    The value of money

    Friday, September 1st, 2006

    I am sitting here looking at a twenty dollar bill. At the top, it says Federal Reserve Note. I’m sure you have seen that before, but did you ever really think what that meant?

    According to my dictionary, a note is a debt, a promise to pay ‘on demand’. Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) are not backed by anything tangible like gold or silver. The only thing that makes them valuable at all is the faith people have that they can be traded for something else that they want, like food, a power drill, a ticket to a movie, etc. To put it bluntly, it is the American people themselves who back the currency; the blood sweat and tears of each of us. The word for this kind of money is ‘fiat’ currency. Essentially, a FRN is an ‘IOU’. But what if there is nothing available to trade those FRNs for?

    Everyday, people purchase foreign goods at their local stores, and pay with US currency. That US money then goes overseas and is quietly accumulating in some huge imaginary shoebox called China’s foreign reserve, or Japan’s foreign reserve. China now has a trillion American IOUs in their shoebox and sooner or later, they are going to want something real for all those IOUs. What exactly can they trade them for? By my calculations, China, Japan, Taiwan, and Russia are holding some 2.3 Trillion dollars. To get an idea how much that is, a trillion is roughly $3300 for each man, woman, and child living in the USA. So 2.3 Trillion comes just shy of $8,000 per person. So a family of 4 has $32,000 worth of IOUs outstanding against them. To me, that is very scary, as that also means that 99% of Americans would be technically bankrupt if those IOUs were called in.

    Now this situation would not be nearly so bad if American’s still made anything real. But we have systematically destroyed our manufacturing sectors in favor of service industries. Foreign countries are not going to buy life insurance or window washing services, or pizza delivery from the USA. These are valueless to them. They will want something real, and the only thing we have real in quantity is real estate, or minerals, coal, and food products like grain.

    This is the big danger when trade between countries is not balanced. If the US were exporting goods at the same rate as we import them, then a foreign country could simply buy back their own currency with their reserve of our currency. Instead, they must spend their reserve on hard tangible goods, which more and more means our real estate, our resources, our food supply, and our capital equipment. In doing so, the increase in the amount of circulating money will cause the price of all goods to rise. This new inflation then decreases the wealth of every citizen as inflation always does.

    I know I have simplified a lot here, but the mechanism is what it is. When we go to Wally World and buy a pair of tennis shoes from China, we haven’t paid for them until China has spent the money we just paid on US goods. Since our trend is to make less and less goods here that are affordable, and desirable, they are likely just to keep stuffing our bucks in their shoebox, until they have enough to buy our entire country at fire sale prices.

    Posted in Economy, Eschaton | No Comments »